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                  <text>Coronavirus</text>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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                <text>Prioritizing IVF treatment in the post-COVID 19 era: a predictive modelling study based on UK national data.</text>
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                <text>Siladitya Bhattacharya, Abha Maheshwari, Mariam Begum Ratna, Rik van Eekelen, Ben Willem Mol, David J McLernon</text>
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                <text>Can we use prediction modelling to estimate the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) related delay in starting IVF or ICSI in different groups of women? Yes, using a combination of three different models we can predict the impact of delaying access to treatment by 6 and 12 months on the probability of conception leading to live birth in women of different age groups with different categories of infertility. Increased age and duration of infertility can prejudice the chances of success following IVF, but couples with unexplained infertility have a chance of conceiving naturally without treatment whilst waiting for IVF. The worldwide suspension of IVF could lead to worse outcomes in couples awaiting treatment, but it is unclear to what extent this could affect individual couples based on age and cause of infertility. A population-based cohort study based on national data from all licensed clinics in the UK obtained from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority Register. Linked data from 9589 women who underwent their first IVF or ICSI treatment in 2017 and consented to the use of their data for research were used to predict livebirth. Three prediction models were used to estimate the chances of livebirth associated with immediate treatment versus a delay of 6 and 12 months in couples about to embark on IVF or ICSI. We estimated that a 6-month delay would reduce IVF livebirths by 0.4%, 2.4%, 5.6%, 9.5% and 11.8% in women aged &lt;30, 30-35, 36-37, 38-39 and 40-42 years, respectively, while corresponding values associated with a delay of 12 months were 0.9%, 4.9%, 11.9%, 18.8% and 22.4%, respectively. In women with known causes of infertility, worst case (best case) predicted chances of livebirth after a delay of 6 months followed by one complete IVF cycle in women aged &lt;30, 30-35, 36-37, 38-39 and 40-42 years varied between 31.6% (35.0%), 29.0% (31.6%), 23.1% (25.2%), 17.2% (19.4%) and 10.3% (12.3%) for tubal infertility and 34.3% (39.2%), 31.6% (35.3%) 25.2% (28.5%) 18.3% (21.3%) and 11.3% (14.1%) for male factor infertility. The corresponding values in those treated immediately were 31.7%, 29.8%, 24.5%, 19.0% and 11.7% for tubal factor and 34.4%, 32.4%, 26.7%, 20.2% and 12.8% in male factor infertility. In women with unexplained infertility the predicted chances of livebirth after a delay of 6 months followed by one complete IVF cycle were 41.0%, 36.6%, 29.4%, 22.4% and 15.1% in women aged &lt;30, 30-35, 36-37, 38-39 and 40-42 years, respectively, compared to 34.9%, 32.5%, 26.9%, 20.7% and 13.2% in similar groups of women treated without any delay. The additional waiting period, which provided more time for spontaneous conception, was predicted to increase the relative number of babies born by 17.5%, 12.6%, 9.1%, 8.4% and 13.8%, in women aged &lt;30, 30-35, 36-37, 38-39 and 40-42 years, respectively. A 12-month delay showed a similar pattern in all subgroups. Major sources of uncertainty include the use of prediction models generated in different populations and the need for a number of assumptions. Although the models are validated and the bases for the assumptions are robust, it is impossible to eliminate the possibility of imprecision in our predictions. Therefore, our predicted live birth rates need to be validated in prospective studies to confirm their accuracy. A delay in starting IVF reduces success rates in all couples. For the first time, we have shown that while this results in fewer babies in older women and those with a known cause of infertility, it has a less detrimental effect on couples with unexplained infertility, some of whom conceive naturally whilst waiting for treatment. Post-COVID 19, clinics planning a phased return to normal clinical services should prioritize older women and those with a known cause of infertility. No external funding was received for this study. B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy work for ObsEva, Merck, Merck KGaA, Guerbet and iGenomics. S.B. is Editor-in-Chief of Human Reproduction Open. None of the other authors declare any conflicts of interest. N/A.</text>
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                <text>2021</text>
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                <text>covid-19, infertility, IVF, prediction models, live birth, unexplained infertility</text>
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                <text>10.1093/humrep/deaa339</text>
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                <text>Human reproduction (Oxford, England)</text>
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                <text>Prioritizing neurosurgical patients care: Limited resources and successful management in COVID pandemic</text>
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              <elementText elementTextId="55926">
                <text>Luis Rafael Moscote-Salazar, Moshiur Rahman, Gaousul Azam, Avijit Dey, Ezequiel Garcia-Ballestas, Amit Agrawa, Robert Ahmed Khan</text>
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                <text>COVID-19 has become an alarming pandemic for our earth. Worldwide, healthcare workers including neurosurgeons are facing challenges in prioritizing neurosurgical patients. Here we have tried to draw attention to the effective management of patients with limited resources. Prioritizing surgical cases in emergencies, overseeing triage framework for neurosurgeries, rebuilding of the inpatient service, should be of utmost priority. Neurosurgeons should point in the amendment as far as a good life for everybody, while still prioritizing equity in the distribution of services.</text>
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                <text>2020</text>
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                <text>management, covid-19, Pandemic, neurosurgery</text>
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                <text>10.32598/irjns.6.2.8</text>
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                <text>Biotemas</text>
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                <text>Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina</text>
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            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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                <text>Neurosciences. Biological psychiatry. Neuropsychiatry, Surgery</text>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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                <text>Prioritizing vulnerable populations and women on the frontlines: COVID-19 in humanitarian contexts</text>
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                <text>Vandana Sharma, Jennifer Scott, Jocelyn Kelly, Michael J. VanRooyen</text>
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                <text>Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has been declared a global pandemic and cases are being reported among displaced populations that are particularly vulnerable to infection. Humanitarian workers on the frontlines of the response are working in some of the most challenging contexts and also face elevated risk of contracting COVID-19 and potential stigmatization or violence in the community. Women humanitarians may be at even greater risk, but their protection is dependent on organization-specific policies and procedures. Without gender balance in leadership positions, the specific needs of women may not be prioritized and women may not be included in decision-making or design of responses. Ensuring gender equitable access to personal protective equipment and information is imperative, but additional measures must be put into place to ensure the protection of women on the frontlines while reducing COVID-19 deaths and adverse health effects among displaced populations.</text>
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                <text>2020</text>
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                <text>gender, Women, COVID-19, Displaced populations, Humanitarian contexts, Essential workers</text>
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                <text>DOI: 10.1186/s12939-020-01186-4</text>
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            <name>Source</name>
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                <text>International Journal for Equity in Health</text>
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            <name>Publisher</name>
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                <text>BMC</text>
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            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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                <text>Public aspects of medicine</text>
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                  <text>Agricultura sostenible</text>
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              <name>Description</name>
              <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Agricultura sostenible</text>
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      <name>Text</name>
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            <name>Title</name>
            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="192700">
                <text>Priorización de enfermedades virales zoonóticas en la interfaz de cerdos silvestres, cerdos domésticos y seres humanos</text>
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          <element elementId="39">
            <name>Creator</name>
            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="192701">
                <text>Diana Benavides-Arias, Diego Soler-Tovar</text>
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          <element elementId="41">
            <name>Description</name>
            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="192702">
                <text>Introducción. Para entender la ecología de las enfermedades es necesario comprender los agentes patógenos en la interfaz de vida silvestre y ganado. Los cerdos silvestres (Sus scrofa) constituyen un problema sanitario cuando se trata de prevenir y controlar las enfermedades zoonóticas, pues en ocasiones sus poblaciones son portadores de agentes infecciosos transmisibles a los cerdos domésticos y a otras especies animales, incluidos los seres humanos. Objetivo. Priorizar las enfermedades zoonóticas en la interfaz de cerdos silvestres, animales domésticos y seres humanos. Materiales y métodos. Se utilizó el método de priorización semicuantitativa basado en 27 criterios sustentados en publicaciones recientes, los cuales se clasificaron en las siguientes cinco categorías con base en la etiología viral: epidemiología (ocho), prevención y control (tres), economía y comercio (cuatro), salud pública (nueve) y sociedad (tres). A cada criterio se le adjudicó un coeficiente entre 0 y 7 de acuerdo con su impacto medido con base en la información científica (suma total de 189). La información sobre los criterios para las nueve enfermedades virales analizadas se recolectó mediante la revisión de 81 fuentes publicadas entre 1977 y 2015. Resultados. Las tres enfermedades con mayor puntaje y potencial zoonótico fueron la influenza porcina (133), la hepatitis E (123) y la infección por hantavirus (103), y la mayor puntuación se observó en los criterios de epidemiología y salud pública. Conclusión. Los métodos semicuantitativos de priorización son una fuente de información para la toma de decisiones, pero su utilización es poco frecuente en los países en desarrollo por la falta de datos de vigilancia en salud pública. El control de las enfermedades que afectan tanto a los seres humanos como a los animales silvestres, requiere el desarrollo de estrategias que reduzcan la transmisión de patógenos de estos a los animales domésticos y a los seres humanos.</text>
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                <text>2016</text>
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            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
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                <text>Sus scrofa, Viruses, ecology, zoonoses</text>
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            <name>Identifier</name>
            <description>An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="192705">
                <text>10.7705/biomedica.v36i0.2950</text>
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                <text>Biomédica: revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud</text>
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            <description>An entity responsible for making the resource available</description>
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                <text>Instituto Nacional de Salud</text>
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            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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                <text>Medicine, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine</text>
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            <name>Relation</name>
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                <text>&lt;a href="http://www.revistabiomedica.org/index.php/biomedica/article/view/2950" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"&gt;http://www.revistabiomedica.org/index.php/biomedica/article/view/2950&lt;/a&gt;</text>
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                  <text>Coronavirus</text>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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                <text>Prisões e Ativismo na Pandemia: Como os Sobreviventes do Encarceramento Transformam o Significado de Participação Cívica</text>
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              <elementText elementTextId="54580">
                <text>Ashley Lucas, Alexandra Friedman, Efrén Paredes</text>
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            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <text>Em meio à pandemia de COVID-19, pessoas atualmente e anteriormente encarceradas no estado de Michigan, nos Estados Unidos, estão fazendo parceria com escritores e artistas do mundo livre para se tornarem mais visíveis neste momento de crise. Este artigo analisa três estudos de caso (o boletim MYLIFEMATTERSTOO, a série da web Living on Loss of Privileges e a programação por correspondência no Prison Creative Arts Project) em que pessoas na prisão e aquelas que foram recentemente libertadas estão usando sua criatividade e redes apoiantes para fazerem valer as suas vozes e direitos. Ao fazê-lo, eles insistem que são cidadãos que participam ativamente das comunidades do mundo livre.</text>
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                <text>2020</text>
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                <text>prisão. ativismo. cidadania. boletim informativo da prisão. web series. programação artística da prisão</text>
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              <elementText elementTextId="54584">
                <text>10.5965/14145731033920200104</text>
              </elementText>
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              <elementText elementTextId="54585">
                <text>Epidemiology and Health</text>
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            <name>Publisher</name>
            <description>An entity responsible for making the resource available</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="54586">
                <text>Korean Society of Epidemiology</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
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            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="54587">
                <text>The performing arts. Show business</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
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  <item itemId="9035" public="1" featured="0">
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            <element elementId="50">
              <name>Title</name>
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                  <text>Coronavirus</text>
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            <element elementId="41">
              <name>Description</name>
              <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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      <name>Text</name>
      <description>A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.</description>
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      <elementSet elementSetId="1">
        <name>Dublin Core</name>
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          <element elementId="50">
            <name>Title</name>
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                <text>Prisoner's Dilemma: Ethical questions and mental health concerns about the COVID-19 vaccination and people living in detention.</text>
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          <element elementId="39">
            <name>Creator</name>
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              <elementText elementTextId="75782">
                <text>D. Bhugra, A. Buadze, R. Schleifer, M Liebrenz</text>
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            <name>Date</name>
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                <text>2021</text>
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                <text>10.1016/j.fsiml.2021.100044</text>
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            <description>A related resource from which the described resource is derived</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="75785">
                <text>Forensic science international. Mind and law</text>
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                  <text>Agricultura sostenible</text>
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              <name>Description</name>
              <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Agricultura sostenible</text>
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      <name>Text</name>
      <description>A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.</description>
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        <name>Dublin Core</name>
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            <name>Title</name>
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                <text>Private Sector Profitability of Maize Production in the Bajío Region of Guanajuato, Mexico / Rentabilidad Privada de la Producción de Maíz en la Región Bajío de Guanajuato, México</text>
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            <name>Creator</name>
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                <text>Eugenio Guzman Soria, Jose Alberto Garcia Salazar, Maria Teresa De La Garza Carranza, Samuel Rebollar Rebollar, Juvencio Hernández Martínez</text>
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                <text>Abstract. Agriculture, generally speaking, is the basis of thefood system of any country. Mexico’s maize crop is particularly important, not only in terms of food security but also as in terms of culture and identity. The fact that, in recent decades, Mexico has positioned itself as the second largest importer of maize is worrying. For the purpose of measuring the private sector profitability of maize production in the Bajío region of Guanajuato, this study analyzed data from 2,996 producers who participate in the “High Yield Maize Assessment Program (PROEMAR)”, of the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias- Bajío Experiment Camp (INIFAP-CEBAJ). We used the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) developed in 1989 by Monke andPearson. The results indicate that the benefit-cost ratios of the three technological systems analyzed (considering in their total income, the sale of grain and sub products), were 2.20 for rainfall (T); 1.50 for irrigation with livestock (RCA) and 1.01 for irrigation without livestock (RSA), excluding land costs; including land costs decreased the ratios to 2.13, 1.35 and 0.91. The private cost ratio (RCP), excluding the land, by production system was: T = 0.04, RCA = 0.13 and RSA = 0.85, which implies that the maize producers in the Bajío region of Guanajuato are competitive. When includingland rent in the production costs, the rainfall and irrigation with livestock systems remained competitive with a RCP of 0.07 and 0.32, respectively; not so for the production unit with the irrigation system without livestock (2.04). The most significant input was fertilizer costs, which represented 50% of the costs. / Resumen. La agricultura en general es la base del sistema alimentario de cualquier país. En México el cultivo de maíz es de especial importancia, no solo en términos de seguridad alimentaria sino también como parte de su cultura e identidad. El hecho de que durante las últimas décadas México se ha posicionado como el segundo importador de maíz a nivel mundial, resulta preocupante. Con el propósito de medir la rentabilidad privada de la producción de maíz en el Bajío de Guanajuato, se analizaron los datos de 2,996 productores que participan en el “Programa de Evaluación de Maíz de Alto Rendimiento (PROEMAR)”, del Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias-Campo Experimental Bajío (INIFAP-CEBAJ). Se usó la Matriz de Análisis de Política (MAP) desarrollada en 1989 por Monke y Pearson. Los resultados indican, que las relaciones beneficio-costo de los tres sistemas tecnológicos analizados (considerando en su ingreso total tanto la venta del grano como desubproductos), fueron de 2,20 en temporal (T); 1,50 en riego con actividad pecuaria (RCA) y 1,01 en riego sin actividad pecuaria (RSA), esto excluyendo la tierra de los costos de producción, mientras que incluyendo la tierra la relación disminuye a 2,13, 1,35 y 0,91. La relación del costo privado (RCP) excluyendo la tierra por tecnología fue: T=0,04, RCA=0,13 y RSA=0,85, lo que implica que el productor de maíz en la región Bajío de Guanajuato es competitivo. Al incluir la renta de la tierra en los costos de producción, los sistemas de temporal y riego con actividad pecuaria siguen siendo competitivos con una RCP de 0,07 y 0,32, respectivamente; no así la unidad de producción bajo el sistema de riego sin actividad pecuaria (2,04). El insumo con mayor importancia en los costos fueron los fertilizantes representando un 50 % de los costos.</text>
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                <text>2014</text>
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            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
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                <text>benefit-cost, competitiveness, competitividad. Ingreso neto, net income. / Beneficio-costo, private cost ratio, relación costo privado</text>
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              <elementText elementTextId="175472">
                <text>10.15446/rfnam.v67n2.44171</text>
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              <elementText elementTextId="175473">
                <text>Revista Facultad Nacional de Agronomía Medellín</text>
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            <description>An entity responsible for making the resource available</description>
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                <text>Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín</text>
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                <text>Agriculture (General), Agriculture</text>
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            <description>A related resource</description>
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                <text>&lt;a href="http://www.revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/refame/article/view/44171" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"&gt;http://www.revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/refame/article/view/44171&lt;/a&gt;</text>
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            <name>Title</name>
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                <text>Proactive and Strategic Healthcare Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in the Coronavirus (Covid-19) Epoch</text>
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            <name>Creator</name>
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                <text>David Baxter, Carter B. Casady</text>
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            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <text>Abstract: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has overwhelmed many national healthcare systems around the world. In attempts to meet their emergency needs and mitigate escalating challenges, governments are increasingly reaching out to the private sector to form sustainable, public-private partnerships (PPPs). Unfortunately, many of these ad hoc efforts have been reactive and uncoordinated to date. This perspective article thus offers a proactive, collaborative, and strategic vision for healthcare PPPs, focusing on short-, medium-, and long-term proposals that will harmonize strategic objectives and mobilize both public and private resources to combat and build resilience against global pandemics like COVID-19.</text>
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            <description>A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource</description>
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                <text>2020</text>
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          <element elementId="49">
            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="37234">
                <text>sustainability, Resilience, healthcare, public/private/partnerships (PPPs), coronavirus covid-19</text>
              </elementText>
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            <name>Identifier</name>
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                <text>DOI: 10.3390/su12125097</text>
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                <text>Sustainability</text>
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                <text>MDPI AG</text>
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            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="37238">
                <text>Environmental sciences, Renewable energy sources, Environmental effects of industries and plants</text>
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                <text>Proactive COVID-19 Infection Prevention Measures in a Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy Center.</text>
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            <name>Creator</name>
            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="25671">
                <text>Su-Shin Lee, Shu-Hung Huang, Ching-Tzu Hung, Hsiao-Chen Lee, Jing-Jou Lo, Su-Chen Wang, Hsiu-Ying Lee</text>
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          <element elementId="41">
            <name>Description</name>
            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="25672">
                <text>Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its subsequent global spread, Taiwan has been combatting this pandemic. COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted through droplets and aerosols, we cannot ignore the risk of transmission during hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT). Our hyperbaric oxygen therapy center prioritizes preventing the spread of COVID-19 and maintaining operation for the patients during the pandemic. The aim of this article is to share the protocol that we have adopted in our hyperbaric oxygen therapy center to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.</text>
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            <name>Date</name>
            <description>A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="25673">
                <text>2020</text>
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          <element elementId="49">
            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="25674">
                <text>infection control, cross infection, HBOT, SARS-CoV-2, corona virus disease 2019</text>
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          <element elementId="43">
            <name>Identifier</name>
            <description>An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="25675">
                <text>DOI: 10.3390/medicina56060261</text>
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          </element>
          <element elementId="48">
            <name>Source</name>
            <description>A related resource from which the described resource is derived</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="25676">
                <text>Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania)</text>
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        <src>http://socictopen.socict.org/files/original/6894ab21b8e7efb2fba4041448302331.pdf</src>
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            <element elementId="50">
              <name>Title</name>
              <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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                <elementText elementTextId="88121">
                  <text>Agricultura sostenible</text>
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              </elementTextContainer>
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            <element elementId="41">
              <name>Description</name>
              <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <elementText elementTextId="88122">
                  <text>Dominio científico: Agricultura sostenible</text>
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      <name>Text</name>
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        <name>Dublin Core</name>
        <description>The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.</description>
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          <element elementId="50">
            <name>Title</name>
            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="193943">
                <text>PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VENEZUELA USING A BAYESIAN APPROACH ESTIMACIÓN PROBABILÍSTICA DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN VENEZUELA MEDIANTE UN ENFOQUE BAYESIANO</text>
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            <name>Creator</name>
            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="193944">
                <text>Durán Alexis, Guenni Lelys</text>
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          <element elementId="41">
            <name>Description</name>
            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="193945">
                <text>The changing climate is one of the main environmental problems facing humanity, since slight variations in the climate variables might have terrible consequences in the economic activities and human well-being. Nowadays atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are the main tools to study changing climate. The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR) led in 2005 the First Communication in Climate Change of Venezuela, using the outputs of 16 GCMs at a global scale (resolution of 5°x 5°) whose projections estimate increasing temperature and diminishing precipitation in the coming years. Each GCM gives different results, generating uncertainty in the future changing climate signal. This work uses a Bayesian approach and an extension of the Reliability Ensemble Average (REA) (Tebaldi et al. 2005) method, combining the outputs (present and future) of precipitation and temperature of the 16 GCMs with observations of present climate conditions, to determine the probability distributions of future changing climate change for these two climate variables in 9 regions in Venezuela. For this study, two criteria are used: bias, which considers the difference between the model outputs and the present climate; and convergence, which quantifies the differences among the simulated changes of future climate by multiple models. The main result of this work is that a large amount of uncertainty still exists in the GCMs projections, since they as yet do not include all aspects of the climate system functioning. It was also concluded that the lower the natural variability in the climate variable, the more effective is its projection.El problema del cambio climático es uno de los grandes problemas ambientales que enfrenta la humanidad, ya que ligeras variaciones en las variables climáticas pueden traer graves consecuencias en las actividades económicas y el bienestar humano en general. Hoy en día los modelos de circulación general (MCG) de la atmósfera son la principal herramienta para estudiar los cambios climáticos. El Ministerio del Ambiente y de los Recursos Naturales (MARN) lideró en el año 2005 la Primera Comunicación Nacional en Cambio Climático de Venezuela, utilizando salidas de 16 MCGs a escala global (resolución de 5°x 5°), cuyas proyecciones estiman incrementos para la temperatura y disminución en la precipitación para los próximos años. Cada MCG arroja diferentes resultados generando incertidumbre en la señal del cambio climático futuro. Este trabajo utiliza un enfoque Bayesiano y una extensión del método Reliability Ensemble Average (REA) (Tebaldi et al. 2005), combinando las salidas (presente y futura) de precipitación y temperatura de los 16 MCG con observaciones de las condiciones climáticas actuales, con el fin de determinar las distribuciones de probabilidad del cambio climático futuro para estas dos variables climáticas en nueve regiones de Venezuela. Para el estudio se toman en cuenta dos criterios: sesgo, el cual considera la diferencia entre las salidas de los modelos y el clima actual, y convergencia, que cuantifica las diferencias en los cambios simulados por los múltiples modelos del clima futuro. El principal resultado obtenido del trabajo es que aún existe considerable incertidumbre en las proyecciones de los MCG, ya que estos no incluyen todos los aspectos sobre el funcionamiento del sistema climático. También se pudo establecer que mientras menor sea la variabilidad natural de la variable climática, más efectiva será su proyección.</text>
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            <name>Date</name>
            <description>A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="193946">
                <text>2010</text>
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            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="49">
            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="193947">
                <text>Bayes estimation, posterior  inference, probabilistic model</text>
              </elementText>
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          </element>
          <element elementId="48">
            <name>Source</name>
            <description>A related resource from which the described resource is derived</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="193948">
                <text>Revista Colombiana de Estadística</text>
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            <name>Publisher</name>
            <description>An entity responsible for making the resource available</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="193949">
                <text>Universidad Nacional de Colombia</text>
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            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="193950">
                <text>Statistics</text>
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            <name>Relation</name>
            <description>A related resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="193951">
                <text>&lt;a href="http://www.revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/29816" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"&gt;http://www.revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/29816&lt;/a&gt;</text>
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