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              <text>Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?</text>
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              <text>Romulus Breban, Raffaele Vardavas, Sally Blower</text>
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              <text>To predict the potential severity of outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, HIV, TB and smallpox, a summary parameter, the basic reproduction number R(0), is generally calculated from a population-level model. R(0) specifies the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. R(0) is used to assess the severity of the outbreak, as well as the strength of the medical and/or behavioral interventions necessary for control. Conventionally, it is assumed that if R(0)&gt;1 the outbreak generates an epidemic, and if R(0)</text>
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