https://socictopen.socict.org/files/original/acf6046f3b4a960ccad22d94eaa43354.pdf dfc8e0a2eb091b8cd4ab611701117194 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China [version 2; peer review: 2 approved] Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Akira Endo, Sam Abbott, Adam J. Kucharski, Sebastian Funk, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group Description An account of the resource Background: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has now spread to a number of countries worldwide. While sustained transmission chains of human-to-human transmission suggest high basic reproduction number R0, variation in the number of secondary transmissions (often characterised by so-called superspreading events) may be large as some countries have observed fewer local transmissions than others. Methods: We quantified individual-level variation in COVID-19 transmission by applying a mathematical model to observed outbreak sizes in affected countries. We extracted the number of imported and local cases in the affected countries from the World Health Organization situation report and applied a branching process model where the number of secondary transmissions was assumed to follow a negative-binomial distribution. Results: Our model suggested a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission of COVID-19. Within the current consensus range of R0 (2-3), the overdispersion parameter k of a negative-binomial distribution was estimated to be around 0.1 (median estimate 0.1; 95% CrI: 0.05-0.2 for R0 = 2.5), suggesting that 80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals (~10%). A joint estimation yielded likely ranges for R0 and k (95% CrIs: R0 1.4-12; k 0.04-0.2); however, the upper bound of R0 was not well informed by the model and data, which did not notably differ from that of the prior distribution. Conclusions: Our finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading. As most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.2 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Biotemas Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Science, Medicine