Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020

Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020

Toshikazu Kuniya

The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is R 0 = 2.6 ( 95 % CI, 2.4 − 2.8 ) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.

2020

COVID-19, seir compartmental model, Basic reproduction number

DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030789

Journal of Clinical Medicine

MDPI AG

Medicine

EN