Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?

Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?

Romulus Breban, Raffaele Vardavas, Sally Blower

To predict the potential severity of outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, HIV, TB and smallpox, a summary parameter, the basic reproduction number R(0), is generally calculated from a population-level model. R(0) specifies the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. R(0) is used to assess the severity of the outbreak, as well as the strength of the medical and/or behavioral interventions necessary for control. Conventionally, it is assumed that if R(0)>1 the outbreak generates an epidemic, and if R(0)

2007

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000282

PLoS ONE

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Science, Medicine

EN