https://socictopen.socict.org/files/original/7a970fd5ec93fb3b2b7898d2daead101.pdf 34821ea3cbeca2b99ece5f996d2d5dad Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Song Yang, Liu Miao, LI Jing, Han Ke, WANG Jianwei, Yang Shanshan, He Yao, Jia Wangping, Cao Wenzhe, Wang Shengshu, Kou Fuyin, Tai Penggang Description An account of the resource Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the countries suffering the most with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemic trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies.Methods: We used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22 2020 to Apr 02 2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with a similar total population number to Italy, was used as a comparative item.Results: In the eSIR model, we estimated that the mean of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was 4.34 (95% CI, 3.04–6.00) in Italy and 3.16 (95% CI, 1.73–5.25) in Hunan. There would be a total of 182 051 infected cases (95%CI:116 114–274 378) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Aug 05 in Italy.Conclusion: Italy's current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures should be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource Prediction, Italy, coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemics trend Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00169 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Frontiers in Medicine Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Frontiers Media S.A. Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Medicine (General)