Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea.

Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea.

Zhiqiang Xia, Juan Zhang, Yakui Xue, Gui-Quan Sun, Zhen Jin

The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public's attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.

2015

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144778

PLoS ONE

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Science, Medicine

EN