https://socictopen.socict.org/files/original/2f836d39b05c0657a6580d3537041c21.pdf 1783ca64a57c6303dc58e2b03a16c14f Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Tadeusz Kufel Description An account of the resource Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities. Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction. Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper. Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource Infection control, Forecasting, COVID-19 epidemic, ARIMA model, non-pharmaceutical intervention Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.24136/eq.2020.009 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Institute of Economic Research Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Economic theory. Demography