Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador

Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador

Moisés Filiberto Mora Murillo, Walter Alfredo Mora Murillo, Digvijay Pandey

In Ecuador, in the Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas province, a Special Operations Committee (SOC) was created to take containment measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research deals with an analysis of the possible spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus causing the infectious disease caused by new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model as a prediction method according to the rigor of the containment measures evaluated. with the acceptability of people through a survey (95 %, CI) in which three parameters (α) severity of containment measures, (k) social impact of the pandemic and (β) transmission rate, are determined, which we then used as β (t) with initial value of β = 1. All this considering the rapid proliferation of the virus in the province and having an average of α = 3.23 (95 % CI: 3 - 4) and for k = 4.10 (95 % CI: 4 - 5) that the authorities will use to mitigate the spread of the virus, as well as future outbreaks of the disease.

2020

coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, simulation, SIR model, modeling

10.29019/enfoqueute.v11n4.678

Enfoqute

Universidad Tecnológica Equinoccial

Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), Technology