COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory.
subject: epidemic models, Caputo derivative, Bernoulli polynomials, Block-pulse
description: The dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated with regard to complex contributions of the omitted factors. For this purpose, we use a fractional order SEIR model which allows us to calculate the number of infections considering the chaotic contributions into susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed number of individuals. We check our model on Wuhan, China-2019 and South Korea underlying the importance of the chaotic contribution, and then we extend it to Italy and the USA. Results are of great guiding significance to promote evidence-based decisions and policy.
creator: O Postavaru, S R Anton, A Toma
source: Mathematics and computers in simulation
date: 2021