Least-Squares Finite Element Method for a Meso-Scale Model of the Spread of COVID-19

Least-Squares Finite Element Method for a Meso-Scale Model of the Spread of COVID-19

Fleurianne Bertrand, Emilie Pirch

This paper investigates numerical properties of a flux-based finite element method for the discretization of a SEIQRD (susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered-deceased) model for the spread of COVID-19. The model is largely based on the SEIRD (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased) models developed in recent works, with additional extension by a quarantined compartment of the living population and the resulting first-order system of coupled PDEs is solved by a Least-Squares meso-scale method. We incorporate several data on political measures for the containment of the spread gathered during the course of the year 2020 and develop an indicator that influences the predictions calculated by the method. The numerical experiments conducted show a promising accuracy of predictions of the space-time behavior of the virus compared to the real disease spreading data.

2021

covid-19, least-squares finite element method, susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered-deceased (SEIQRD)

10.3390/computation9020018

Epidemiology and Health

Korean Society of Epidemiology

Electronic computers. Computer science