Adjustment of population growth curve applied to COVID-19 in Cuba

Adjustment of population growth curve applied to COVID-19 in Cuba

Juan Felipe Medina Mendieta, Manuel E Cortés Cortés, Manuel Cortés Iglesias

Introduction: Cuba and all its provinces have been affected by COVID-19 disease. The government and the health system have taken measures to avoid contagion from person to person. To take these measures it is important to have estimates of the rate of infection.Objectives: To obtain predictions for the peak of infected cases and the total number for some Cuban provinces and the whole country.Material and Methods: Predictive study of population growth curves. Data from the first 52 days of the disease in the country are processed to estimate the models and to apply the method of least squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. The adjusted coefficient of determination, the Akaike information criterion and the standard error of the residuals are used to measure the goodness of fit of the models. The provinces that present a rate of infection per 100,000 inhabitants greater than 14,71 and the country as a whole are studied.Results: The goodness of fit of the models used in the provinces studied and the country is high, which allows them to be reliable for predictions.Conclusions: The predictions suggest that the five provinces analyzed and Cuba show their peak of contagion in April.

2020

covid-19, Cuba, estudio predictivo, curvas de crecimiento poblacional

Biotemas

Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

Public aspects of medicine, Medicine (General)