https://socictopen.socict.org/files/original/ada9d09aa626632b5e3b2520a47f6cb0.pdf 7c054b106655c8a01ca41aaa5f46d76c Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Statistics-Based Predictions of Coronavirus Epidemic Spreading in Mainland China Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Igor Nesteruk Description An account of the resource Background.  The epidemic outbreak caused by coronavirus COVID-19 is of great interest to researches because of the high rate of the infection spread and the significant number of fatalities. A detailed scientific analysis of the phenomenon is yet to come, but the public is already interested in the questions of the epidemic duration, the expected number of patients and deaths. Long-time predictions require complicated mathematical models that need a lot of effort to identify and calculate unknown parameters. This article will present some preliminary estimates. Objective. Since the long-time data are available only for mainland China, we will try to predict the epidemic characteristics only in this area. We will estimate some of the epidemic characteristics and present the dependen­cies for victim numbers, infected and removed persons versus time. Methods. In this study we use the known SIR model for the dynamics of an epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before for investigation of the children disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine) in 1988–1989.  Results. The optimal values of the SIR model parameters were identified with the use of statistical approach. The numbers of infected, susceptible and removed persons versus time were predicted and compared with the new data obtained after February 10, 2020, when the calculations were completed. Conclusions. The simple mathematical model was used to predict the characteristics of the epidemic caused by coronavirus in mainland China. Unfortunately, the number of coronavirus victims is expected to be much higher than that predicted on February 10, 2020, since 12289 new cases (not previously included in official counts) have been added two days later. Further research should focus on updating the predictions with the use of up-to-date data and using more complicated mathematical models. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource SIR model, coronavirus 2019-ncov, coronavirus (COVID-19), statistical methods, parameter identification, coronavirus epidemic in china, mathematical modeling of infection diseases Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.20535/ibb.2020.4.1.195074 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Biology (General)