COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory.

COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory.

O Postavaru, S R Anton, A Toma

The dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated with regard to complex contributions of the omitted factors. For this purpose, we use a fractional order SEIR model which allows us to calculate the number of infections considering the chaotic contributions into susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed number of individuals. We check our model on Wuhan, China-2019 and South Korea underlying the importance of the chaotic contribution, and then we extend it to Italy and the USA. Results are of great guiding significance to promote evidence-based decisions and policy.

2021

epidemic models, Caputo derivative, Bernoulli polynomials, Block-pulse

10.1016/j.matcom.2020.09.029

Mathematics and computers in simulation